Error Creates Duplicate UI Checks

A number of unemployment checks were duplicated in error over the weekend, the S.C. Employment Security Commission announced today.

Approximately 1,250 checks, dated Sunday, July 19, were printed twice, and mailed to claimants.

Claimants who receive two checks should cash only one of them. The other check should be returned to their local S.C. Employment Security Commission Workforce Center.

If both checks are cashed, the claimant will be liable for the excess payment.

All claimants who received duplicate checks will be contacted either by phone or mail.

For any questions, contact 803-737-3071.

Economist Schunk presents overview of S.C. Labor markets for April

Highlights from April 2009 Data:

• South Carolina’s unemployment rate rose to 11.5% in April from 11.4% in March. Unemployment in South Carolina is now at its historical high (though these data only go back to 1976). The unemployment rate has been climbing steadily since early 2008. While the current level of unemployment speaks to the depth of the current recession, it is also an indicator of longer-term challenges facing the state as we struggle with ongoing sharp job losses within manufacturing.

Aside from being a telling measure of the current situation, the high unemployment rate also has implications for the coming recovery. As the unemployment rate continues to climb in the coming months and quarters, it will place additional strain on consumer spending, further dampening the prospects of a strong recovery.

• Total employment in South Carolina is down 4.5% over the last 12 months. Between April 2008 and April 2009, total employment is down by 88,600 jobs. These losses are widespread across most sectors of the state’s economy, but continue to be centered in manufacturing, construction, retail trade and leisure and hospitality. As with the unemployment rate, the magnitude of job losses serves as an indicator of the depth of the recession, but also serves as a predictor of further pressure on consumer spending as job and income losses continue to mount.

Looking ahead…

While some economists and analysts are starting to suggest that the recession may be over, I do not share that view. It does appear that the worst of the recession is behind us, but what does that mean? During the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, the U.S. economy was falling off a cliff. But the recession doesn’t end until we hit the bottom. A recovery doesn’t begin until we start climbing back up. We aren’t “recovered” until we are again standing at the top of that cliff. Right now, the economy is still shrinking, but in many ways we’re not shrinking as rapidly as we were.

Will the economy hit bottom and begin to recover? Yes, and more specifically I expect the economy to hit bottom at some point during the third quarter of 2009 before we begin to recover during the fourth quarter of 2009. The critical question now is “What will the coming recovery look like?” Right now, I expect the coming recovery to be sluggish – characterized by below average economic growth – perhaps for several years.

What leads to this outlook for a sluggish recovery? We need to recognize some important differences between this recession and previous recessions that will work to define the character of the coming recovery. First and foremost, as we come out of this recession, we will be relying on households to lead the way, but they will be doing so in the face of high and rising unemployment. Further, previous recoveries have been characterized by falling savings rates and rising consumer debt levels; just the opposite is true this time around. These factors suggest that the coming recovery will be accompanied by slower than normal growth of consumer spending.

Previous recoveries have often relied on housing and construction to help drive growth. This time around, we are faced with high inventories and home sales that are still declining. This suggests that we may be years away from substantial growth in terms of residential construction. Similarly, business bankruptcies and closures, coupled with years of rapid development in retail and office space, suggests that there will be ample commercial space available. This will again work to dampen new construction as the economy begins to recover. Finally, U.S. manufacturers are generally operating with a large degree of excess capacity. This suggests that we are some time away from a situation where businesses need to substantially expand capacity. This excess capacity will likely work to dampen business investment during the coming recovery.

A recovery is on its way, but we need to be careful as far as our expectations regarding the strength of that recovery.

For additional information, contact: Don Schunk, research economist, dschunk@coastal.edu, 843-655-0995 or 843-349-2485.

Economist Schunk presents overview of S.C. labor market data for February

The following report is an overview by Don Schunk, research economist at Coastal Carolina University, of employment/unemployment data for February 2009 released today by the South Carolina Employment Security Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Overview of South Carolina’s Labor Markets, February 2009 data

Highlights from February data:

• South Carolina’s unemployment rate surged to 11% in February.
Unemployment in South Carolina is bearing down on its record high of 11.4% set in January 1983. Between January and February, the size of the state’s labor force grew by 5,600. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed individuals increased by 15,100. There were several years, from 2003 through early 2008, when the state’s jobless rate remained stubbornly high despite positive job growth. This was due to rapid growth in the state’s labor force – we were adding jobs, but the number of people looking for those jobs was growing even more quickly.

Recent labor force growth continues to exert upward pressure on the state’s jobless rate; however, the bulk of the pressure now comes from the fact that the state is losing jobs at nearly the fastest pace in history…

• Total employment in South Carolina is down 4.6% over the last 12months – this is the fastest annual rate of job loss since May 1975.
The number of jobs in South Carolina during February 2009 was 88,700 below February 2008’s level, representing a 4.6% drop in jobs since last year. Between May 1974 and May 1975, the state posted a 5.1% decline in employment. In fact, we have been losing jobs at a rapid enough pace that we currently find total employment below the level reached during June 2000 – at the end of the 1990s economic expansion. Since 2000, South Carolina’s population has increased by nearly 500,000, and yet the number of jobs is essentially where it was in mid-2000.

Yes, South Carolina saw several years of positive job growth in the mid-2000s, but it is now clear that this period of economic growth from 2003 through early 2008 was not strong enough to generate sustainable gains for the state’s economy. We continue to be faced with a substantial challenge as we deal with the long-term and ongoing declines in South Carolina’s manufacturing base.

• Unemployment rates along the Grand Strand were essentially unchanged from January to February.
Unemployment in Horry County was unchanged at 14.3%. In Georgetown, unemployment rose slightly from 12.9% to 13.1%. While this may seem like a positive, it is important to note that historically, unemployment on the Grand Strand typically falls between January and February thanks to the beginning of the hiring season. For example, since 1990, Horry County’s jobless rate normally falls by an average of 1.2 percentage points between January and February. This year, Horry County’s jobless rate was unchanged; this indicates a lack of normal seasonal hiring, suggesting further deterioration in the local economy.

Looking ahead…

I expect South Carolina’s unemployment rate to continue to climb, likely throughout all of 2009 and into at least early 2010. Overall, the economy remains in a deep recession, and while there have been some scattered signs of improvement nationally (some positive surprises to durable goods orders, home sales and some stock market gains), there remain some fundamental obstacles working to hold back the economy. Home prices should continue to fall for the majority of this year, weakening labor markets will continue to weigh on household incomes and spending, and the financial system is not yet working as it should. I suspect we will continue to receive scattered reports that surprise to the upside, but the negative momentum built up behind the economy right now will take time to subside.

Additionally, during the last two recessions in South Carolina we saw that initial claims for unemployment insurance would reach a peak about two years prior to a peak in the unemployment rate itself. As of now, initial claims do not yet appear to have peaked, providing further evidence that we could be facing an extended period of rising unemployment rates.

Don Schunk, Research Economist
BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration
Coastal Carolina University

For additional information, contact: Don Schunk, dschunk@coastal.edu, 843-655-0995 or 843-349-2485

Overview of South Carolina’s Labor Markets, January 2009 Data

Highlights from January Data:

• South Carolina’s unemployment rate soared to 10.4% in January from a revised 8.8% in December 2008. This was the highest unemployment rate for South Carolina since the spring of 1983, and ranks the state as the 2nd highest in the country, behind only Michigan at 11.6%. While this level of unemployment is stunning, the sheer speed of deterioration is perhaps most disconcerting. South Carolina’s jobless rate increased 4.7 percentage points over the last twelve months. During the early 1980s, when state unemployment rose to a high of 11.4%, the jobless rate never increased by more than 3.5 percentage points during any twelve-month period.

Consistent state-level unemployment records only go back as far as 1976. Since that time, the highest recorded jobless rate for the state was 11.4% during January 1983. That record will unfortunately be eclipsed within a matter of months.

• Total employment in South Carolina is down 4.0% over the last twelve months. Between January 2008 and January 2009, the state has experienced a net loss of 76,100 jobs. The job losses over the past year have been increasingly widespread across industries as the economic weakness originally centered in housing has evolved quickly into one of the deepest recessions on record.

Looking ahead…

There is no silver lining in January’s labor market data. South Carolina posted nearly record-high unemployment in January. Since then, the U.S. has already recorded another large increase in unemployment, from 7.6% in January to 8.1% in February, and South Carolina is certainly going to follow suit. Further, the overall economy continues to deteriorate further as consumers, businesses, and state and local governments pull back sharply on spending.

We are in the midst of a vicious recessionary cycle of negative feedback as rising unemployment saps household income and spending, leading to further declines in business output and spending, and further job losses. In the midst of this, we have substantial government intervention and tremendous uncertainty over the precise nature and ultimate impacts of these government actions. All of this is creating an atmosphere of extreme anxiety and uncertainty that will continue to cause the economy to slide. The state’s economy is likely to remain in a recession throughout all of 2009, and unemployment will likely continue to rise well into 2010.

As recently as mid-February, I was personally projecting the state’s unemployment rate to hit 11.5% by the end of this year, and I expected the sharpest pace of year-over-year job losses statewide to be about -3.1%. As ugly as these projections were, I now recognize they were too optimistic.

Don Schunk, Research Economist
BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development
E. Craig Wall Sr. College of Business Administration
Coastal Carolina University

Unemployment 13.1 in Darlington

South Carolina’s unemployment rate soared to 10.4% in January, the State Employment Security Commission reported today. January’s figure was the highest since April 1983 when the rate reached 10.7%. The state’s labor force was estimated at 2,188,441 in January while the number of unemployed climbed to record high of 227,986. The national jobless rate rose to 7.6% in January from a 7.2% rate in December.

Darlington County's unemployment for January was 13.1 percent. The highest rates in the state were in Allendale (23.4%) and Marion (22.4%) counties.

Unemployment Benefit Stimulus Supplement to Begin

The South Carolina Employment Security Commission announced a new federal supplement of $25.00 for eligible claimants.

The Federal Additional Compensation (FAC) program, part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, was recently approved by Congress and signed into law by President Barack Obama on February 17, 2009.

This $25.00 supplement is 100 percent federally-funded. Governor Mark Sanford has already authorized these payments.

The FAC benefits are payable to individuals who are otherwise entitled under state law to receive regular unemployment insurance. According to Allen Larson, Deputy Executive Director for Unemployment Insurance at SCESC, the benefits will be effective for the week ending February 28, 2009.

However, claimants will not see the increase in their benefits check for about two weeks.

“Like other states across the nation, the S.C. Employment Security Commission is dealing with almost daily changes in the federal requirements from the U.S. Department of Labor to implement these additional payments," Larson stated. "We are working as quickly as possible to make the necessary computer programming changes required to get the additional compensation out to eligible claimants."

DeMint’s rhetoric ignores reality

Op-ed by Carol Fowler

As record numbers of South Carolinians struggle to find jobs and keep their homes, U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint denigrates the efforts of our government to get our economy moving again, and tries to claim freedom as a value unique to right-wing Republicans.

DeMint was one of the opening speakers Friday at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C., sponsored by the American Conservative Union. DeMint, the only U.S. senator to score perfectly on its right-wing agenda, told his listeners to choose their next leader on adherence to their principles.

Let’s start by putting our situation in perspective. We had a budget surplus in 2000 when Republicans took the White House. They set off on a series of misadventures – a war in Iraq, tax cuts for the wealthy and further erosion of regulation. And so it was that last year we watched the economy crash into a ditch.

Voters elected Democrats to get the car back on the road. DeMint and his ilk want to stand on the curb and shout directions to those of us willing to get down in the mud and push.

We will get the economy back on the road, and Democrats believe the market will propel it down the highway. But we will also expect drivers to obey speed limits, and that police will be on the road to protect the law-abiding drivers from the reckless ones. It’s called regulation.

In Friday’s speech, DeMint demonized President Obama “as the world’s best salesman for socialism,” and called for an “enraged” citizenry to take to the streets to stop a “slide into socialism.”
“I am convinced neither the Congress nor the president will preserve freedom,” DeMint said. “Folks, we’re not letting freedom work, but we’re blaming freedom,” he said. “The government is not the answer to our problems. The government is the problem.”

In this, DeMint sounds more like a 19th century anarchist than a supporter of our system of representative democracy. Our freedom is one we choose through elected representatives, a freedom we maintain through law. We the people are we the government.

Outside of the realm of citizens are other powerful forces: other nations and corporations with no national loyalty.

The far right often overlooks how many of our government institutions are designed to protect and foster business. What condition of “freedom” would we have if companies could not enforce contracts by recourse to civil courts, protect their innovations through patents, or raise capital because there was no outside agency such as the Securities and Exchange Commission to verify companies were fully disclosing their financial conditions? Freedom to prosper depends on a structure of justice not just for corporations, but for individuals.

Freedom is something Democrats cherish, too. In 1941 President Franklin D. Roosevelt outlined four of them: freedom of speech and expression; freedom of every person to worship God in his own way; freedom from want and freedom from fear.

Roosevelt was demonized in his own time by those on the right, and in his Four Freedoms speech he offered some advice on dealing with obstructionists.

“We must especially beware of that small group of selfish men who would clip the wings of the American eagle in order to feather their own nests,” Roosevelt said. “The best way of dealing with the few slackers or trouble-makers in our midst is, first, to shame them by patriotic example, and if that fails, to use the sovereignty of government to save government.”

With regard to Sen. DeMint, voters will have that chance in November 2010. Let freedom ring.

Democratic Leader Harry Ott Rejects Sec. Taylor’s Claim

Invites Taylor and Gov. Sanford to his district to meet unemployed constituents.

On Tuesday morning Democratic House Minority Leader Harry Ott released a statement repudiating Commerce Secretary Joe Taylor's comments alleging the high unemployment numbers in South Carolina were caused by job seekers not able to pass a drug test.

"I reject the ridiculous claim that Secretary Taylor made in regards to our staggering unemployment figures. He and the Governor are so out of touch with the people of South Carolina that they are willing to accuse our citizens of baseless claims of drug use. Therefore, I would like to formally invite Secretary Taylor and Governor Sanford to my district to meet the men and women who are struggling to find any job at all. The Sanford administration's inability to create and protect jobs in South Carolina is the reason for our economic crisis. Democrats in the House are committed to job creation, job protection, and passing legislation that will provide stability for our citizens in the current economic recession.

According to the State Employment Security Commission, over 200,000 South Carolinians are currently out of work, a figure that makes up almost 10% of the state's population. Leader Ott added, "Perhaps the Governor's advisors should stop scheduling his next out-of-state speech and begin working on creating jobs for the people of South Carolina."

Rep. Harry Ott currently represents district 93 which includes St. Matthews.

S.C. Unemployment Rate is 9.5% in December

With momentum from ongoing layoffs and an expanding labor force, South Carolina’s unemployment rate continued to climb in December reaching 9.5%, the State Employment Security Commission reported today. This is more than a full percentage point above November’s rate of 8.4%, and the highest rate since January 1983. The state’s labor force grew nearly 14,300 in December to 2,184,613. The number of unemployed grew almost 25,600 to 207,171, the highest level on record. The national unemployment rate also rose sharply, climbing from 6.7% in November to 7.2% in December.

The number of jobs in the state plummeted 22,000 in December to 1,906,900. This is the largest December job loss on record. Leading the downturn was Professional and Business Services (-8,500), followed by Leisure and Hospitality (-6,300), Manufacturing (-2,100), and Construction (-1,400). Construction has posted losses for the last 14 consecutive months, while Manufacturing has posted nine consecutive months of job losses. The overall job count dropped to 54,100 below the previous year’s level.

Roosevelt T. Halley, Executive Director of the Commission, said “the unemployment and job count data for 2008 will be revised over the next month through the annual benchmarking process mandated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The updated data series will be released along with the January 2009 estimates.”

# 21 Darlington County December 2008 Rate = 11.7%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points.